MTT : FaceMyAlterEgo Deep Run Review - Part 1 posted by FaceMyAlterEgo @ Tue, 15 Sep 2015 01:34:09 +0000

The profitability of this play hinges mostly on our foldeuqity.
When we jam and get called by roughly 99+ AK, AQs, and some AQo, we have 32% equity. We jam 18,2k, if we get called the pot will be 39,7k and 32% of that is 12.7k.
If we get called, we lose 18,2k-12,7k = 5,500 chips on average. If he folds we win the pot of 4700 chips. So we risk 5500 to win 4700: 5500/(4700+5500) = ~53,4 foldequity.
The valuerange I assigned him was about 5% of hands, so we basically want him to be 3bet/folding with about 6% in order to warrant jamming here. Which looks a bit sketchy in hindsight, I think vs a bunch of people you can just fold.